Yesterday Tom Boswell wrote what can only be describe as the lunatic ramblings of a man completely out of touch. I have an easier time saying this then most of my favorite writers, because I didn't grow up reading and idolizing the guy. I respect everything that he has contributed, but I don't hold him in the same kind of esteem.
The biggest take away quote from the whole thing is the line When stats WILDLY contradict common sense, always doubt the stats.
This is a rather crazy concept to me, since I certainly tend to rely on objective analysis. I do this because I like numbers, and I simply do not know nearly enough about scouting to do it any other way.
Well, all year I have been claiming that John Lester was superior to Daisuke Matsuzaka. I still in my heart of hearts believe this. I watched both guys pitch all year and I firmly believe that Matsuzaka was REALLY lucky with runnners on base. His strand rate bares this out, but after reviewing the numbers it's not nearly as clearly cut as you would think. Yes, this smacks in the face of everything I said in earlier post. In essence, I still think my common sense is right, but I am forced to accept the possiblity that maybe my common sense is biased.